When it comes to the topic of climate change the facts are undeniable. Global surface temperatures and the melting of ice in the arctic broke numerous records in 2016. Climate scientists argue that unless the world works to curb carbon emissions our future will consist of extreme weather patterns that include extended droughts, rising sea levels, tropical storms, and other extreme weather patterns. These extreme weather patterns can exacerbate existing issues like water scarcity. To many in developing countries climate variability can be seen as an obstacle to food security and even survival for those whose livelihoods depend on the natural resources around them decreased (Deewua & Deewua, pg. 117). This is currently being seen all over the world including countries in the Sahel region of Africa as well as regions in the Middle East. Although the likelihood of conflict due to climate change increases in pastoral societies that are found in parts of the Sahel region of Africa, it is not limited to these societies.

Right now, in the northernmost arctic region of Canada the ice is melting at alarming speeds which is opening waterways that for hundreds of years have been blocked by ice. With new open access routes comes the concern for future conflict over the territorial sovereignty of arctic nations and the sharing rights for non-arctic nations and multinational corporations. There is also the threat of 'ecoterrorism' in the near future as a consequence of the melting ice caps. This could result from the growing frustration due to the shift in trade from regions in the global South to the arctic region (Huebert, 19). Situations of possible conflict like those mentioned above beg the question-what will the future of the planet look like if preventative actions against climate change are not taken soon? Could this future reflect one of conflict and intense competition over resources due to the looming effects of climate change? I believe that it is time to take the threat of climate change seriously, this involves accepting and acting on the facts provided by leading climate scientists. If the world does not act on climate now, especially the leaders of the major industrialized countries including the U.S, the future generations will be the ones to pay the consequences.

It is important to note that within the discourse involving the link between climate change and conflict experts do not argue that climate change directly causes conflict but instead that it exacerbates existing social and economic issues. In the past few years, the U.S Department of Defense has even shifted its view on climate change calling it a ''threat multiplier' for its ability to displace mass groups of people, damage infrastructure, spread disease, and limit access to food and water. There are many analysts who believe that the effects of climate change will lead to future conflict due to the pressures it puts on existing issues. There are many analysts who disagree with this assumption claiming that there is little evidence to link climate change and conflict. Many instead blame conflict on bad governance and policy. This bad governance takes its form through oppressive dictatorships whom limit the rights of many and hold zero accountability in times of crisis. State corruption and armed conflict can also lead to inefficient and unproductive food distribution during times of famine exasperating conflict over resources (BBC, 2017). Currently when it comes to the issue of famine in certain countries like South Sudan, Somalia, Yemen, and the northern most region of Nigeria armed conflict and terrorism is to blame for famine. In the case of South Sudan, years of conflict in certain regions are to blame for the uprooting of farmers whom depend greatly on their agriculture. Violent competition among political leaders for resources and control among ethnic groups have escalated and disrupted crop production (BBC, 2017). Farmers have fled their homes in Somalia and north east Nigeria due to the presence of the terrorist groups Al Shabab and Boko Haram and their control over parts of the region. In Yemen, successive governments are at fault for failing to conserve resources and "improve the country's ability to feed itself" (BBC, 2017).

François Gemenne, Jon Barnett, W. Neil Adger, and Geoffrey D. Dabelko are of those whom argue that events like famine have political roots versus problems of scarcity. While I agree that in a lot of situations bad governance can be to blame for famines, I disagree with laying the blame solely on political roots. These authors seem to leave out pastoral societies in regions of East and North Africa whose livelihood is dependent on grazing land for cattle and water. Evidence proves that grazing land is becoming scarce due to extended periods of drought. It also proves that the surrounded lakes that provide water are drying up due to the same circumstances. The issue of extended droughts and water scarcity have climatic roots in this case not political roots. Phillip Dahida Deewua and Moses Dahida Deewua, professors and authors of "The Implication of Climate Change to Africa Peace: The Sahel Region In Focus", argue that climate variability is an obstacle to stability, peace, and food security. I agree with this notion because as many climate scientists argue climate change can affect security in the Sahel by exacerbating droughts and soil degradation which could in turn cause land use conflicts.

In the Sahel region herding livestock and agriculture are the main industries and they are dependent on rainfall in the region. In the past 35 years the population of people in the Sahel region has increased significantly while the rate of rainfall has decreased (Deewua & Deewua, pg. 117). Droughts, rising sea levels, and other extreme weather patterns can exacerbate existing issues such as water scarcity. The effects of climate change could make some regions inhabitable which could lead to internally displaced peoples and/or climate refugees. Radicalization along with ethnic and religious conflict could also become a reality in some regions in the Sahel if the government that is in power cannot protect its citizens from the effects of climate change and provide for the demand for clean water and food (Deewua & Deewua, pg. 122). The extreme conditions of poverty that some of these countries exist in also do not allow for the population to adapt to the effects of climate change. When climate change is coupled with ethnic divides within pastoral societies in certain regions like Africa and East Asia then resource competition can occur and the likelihood of armed conflict increases (Deewua & Deewua, pg. 130). Although the likelihood of conflict due to climate change increases in pastoral societies it is not limited to these societies.

Currently, in the northernmost arctic region of Canada the ice is melting rapidly which is resulting in the opening of new waterways. These new open access routes could leave the door open for possible future conflict over the territorial sovereignty of arctic nations and the sharing rights for non-arctic nations and multinational corporations (Huebert, 17). It also introduces competition over natural gas and oil reserves and 'who gets what' in terms of countries and multinational corporations. Due to the fact that there is an abundance of undiscovered oil and natural gas in the northernmost arctic region foreign interests in the region are coming from all over the globe mainly the EU and China. The EU and China have both expressed interest in becoming permanent observer status of the arctic region (Huebert, 19). However, the EU has a strong opposition to the development of oil and gas fields in the arctic while China wishes to invest in research programs involving the territory of the arctic region. With the present effects of climate change and the increased changes looming around the corner Canada also has to worry about the population of people in the northern arctic region whose way of life will continue to be effected by climate change and foreign interest in the territory (Huebert, 21).

According to George Backus author of, "Arctic 2030: What are the consequences of climate change?: The US response", there is also the threat of 'ecoterrorism' in the near future as a result of the melting ice caps in the arctic. This could come as a result of the shift in trade to the arctic northernmost part of the globe which would abandon the economies and regions of countries in Africa and South America. Backus argues that there may be a need for a military presence to maintain stability in the region by 2030 when the majority of the ice is predicted to have been melted (Backus, 11). He argues that military preparedness on behalf of the United States will be necessary in ensuring that the rights of all nations and peoples will be respected. Scenario based planning on behalf of the Defense Department is also necessary in order to weigh the risks and consequences of a warming Arctic and the events that could unfold among nations because of that (Backus, 12). While I agree that the competition for resources in the arctic could possibly breed conflict I do not agree that there should be a need for U.S military intervention. I say this because U.S military intervention and 'boots on the ground' in the arctic could possibly breed conflict on its own due to U.S Russia/China relations. I could also see how a U.S military presence could possibly be problematic to those people who inhabit the northern arctic region whose way of life is dependent on that territory.

Yury Morozov, professor and author of the article “Arctic 2030: What are the consequences of climate change?: The Russian response”, argues how Russia will be another country that will be significantly affected by the melting of ice caps in the arctic. As discussed above, the melting of ice caps in the arctic will pave the way for increased access to oil and natural resource reserves. The demand for these natural resources will be sought out by countries all over the globe including China, Russia, Canada, the U.S, Norway, and Denmark. Although this will open the arctic up to increased commerce the consequences of climate change will be severe. Climate change will also cause an increase in extreme weather patterns across the globe. These extreme weather patterns will include rising sea levels, increased storm activity, extended droughts, and the melting of permafrost (Morozov, 23). Russia will be one of the country's hit the hardest by rising sea levels. Russia also has a significant chunk of its infrastructure built on permafrost that is expected to melt in the years ahead which will release large amounts of methane into the atmosphere- speeding up the process of global warming. Despite this, Russia has plans to turn the arctic into a major resource center with the territory that they hold in the arctic and wants to achieve this with international cooperation between arctic states (Morozov, 25).

I believe Morozov contradicts himself when he claims that the waterways in the arctic being opened to commercial enterprise is a positive aspect while later in his piece discussing the detrimental effects of increased pollution and carbon. Using the open arctic to continue to drill for oil and natural gas would contribute to the effects and speed of climate change, one cannot view this as a positive aspect while simultaneously warning of the effect of further pollution. It seems to be that continuing to drill for oil and natural gas is a short term solution for a long term problem. One can only imagine the disastrous impacts an oil spill would have on the indigenous communities and different species of wildlife that call the arctic home. The Exxon Valdez oilspill in Alaska that occurred about 20 years ago is an example of what an oil spill could look like in the arctic. Even twenty years later spilled oil is still found on land near the spill not to mention the detrimental impact it had on the otter and orca population of the region. Climate analysts suggest that the impact on the arctic seabed could be far more noteworthy for the waters of the high North (Green Peace, 2016).

Effects of climate change and environmental degradation can be catastrophic and should not be taken lightly. Environmental degradation comes in the form of man-made environmental degradation through the burning of fossil fuels and other forms of pollution and it also comes in the form of cyclical weather patterns that have occurred over time (Cerdei, 254). While irregular weather patterns throughout history are normal, climate change occurs when this is coupled with man-made degradation. Many climate experts argue that increased population demand coupled with climate change will worsen forms of conflict due to the effect it has on food and water scarcity in regions (Cerdei, 255). Increased population demand also brings up the issue of climate induced migration, an increasing reality in many regions in the global South.

While many refugees escape from war and other forms of conflict, in recent years there have been people escaping from environmental circumstances (Parages, 2017). Climate change is also viewed as a 'threat multiplier' which can exacerbate existing issues of food and water scarcity and desertification. The effects of climate change can make a region inhabitable which is being seen to increase migrations of people in search of survival. Climate change also contributes to the warming of the planet and ocean which will result in the continuation of extreme weather patterns like tsunamis and hurricanes, which will also displace many people in the future. Forest fires and sea level rise are products of climate change as well and are both factors that will lead to population displacement (Parages, 2017). If we cannot curb carbon emissions and plan for the risks involved with climate change then we will continue to see a significant number in displacement peoples and even the likelihood of conflict in not only global South regions but even in our own arctic backyard.
