Thomas Malthus noticed that mankind had a tendency to utilize the abundance of food to increase the population instead of maintaining a high standard of living. He developed a theory in 1798 that projected the population would continue to increase at an exponential rate and would eventually exceed the worlds food supply. His theory was proven inaccurate because he did not account for the new innovations and methods of production that is constantly occurring in agricultural industry. However, every year the world’s population increases at an even higher rate. This poses the question of will the population eventually exceed the amount of food the agricultural industry can produce?

 Some people believe there is no need for an exponential increase the production of food, they believe the world simply needs an exponential expansion in global trade yielding a more even distribution of food. Others believe that a large increase in the population, food production and distribution will cause supplementary environmental challenges, including global climate change and disease transmission from agricultural animals. Assuming the population continues to increase at its current rate, by 2050 the world will demand an agricultural revolution requiring massive innovations in the local food production versus through global trade. 

In order to meet the future demands of food supply, the world needs to achieve agricultural sustainability. Sustainability is not particularly an end state, but rather a process that moves agricultural systems along a trajectory toward greater sustainability (NRC, 2015). The National Research Council (NRC) defines sustainability as having four generally agreed upon goals; satisfy human food, feed, and fiber needs and contribute to biofuel needs; enhance environmental quality and the resource base; sustain the economic viability of agriculture; and enhance the quality of life for farmers, farm workers, and society as a whole. Reinvigorating animal agricultural research is essential to sustainably address the global challenge of food security. The demand for food from animal agriculture is anticipated to nearly double by 2050. This increased demand is due to the “predicted increase in the world population from 7.2 billion to between 9 and 10 billion people in 2050” (NRC, 2015).

 Animal agriculture consists of meat, fish and milk, all of which contain a high quantity of animal protein. Animal protein currently provides 13 percent of the calories produced globally from agriculture and represents 26 percent of the world’s dietary protein. In the United States, 133 lbs. of animal protein were consumed per capita in 2012, and animal products accounted for over half of the value of agricultural production. The National Research Council estimates that between 2000 and 2050, North America and Europe will see little growth in animal protein consumption, whereas consumption in Asia and Africa will more than double. Investment in agricultural research and development continues to be one of the most productive investments, but it continues to be neglected, particularly in low-income countries. 

One opinion on this argument is that there is enough, or close to enough food produced in the world already, it is just not evenly distributed. The future will bring many issues in food supply globally, but in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA region) the challenges faced there are more complex. The projected increase in population as well as the diminishing amount of land usable for agriculture indicates an increasing need for trade of agricultural goods to the MENA region. We have all seen the commercials that say, every time you don’t finish your meal and throw half of it away there is a child in Africa would do anything to have that food. In developed countries, there is an abundance of food wasted or stored away in case of an emergency while in under developed countries people go to bed without having a single meal all day. Open trade policies that allowed all countries to freely trade with one another without having to worry about paying high tariffs would greatly reduce the number of people starving globally. The Journal of International Law & International Relations states that in the past, free trade was a procedure where the English governing class debated on providing relief to the hungry (Orford, 42). The principle of free trade and the science of political economy profoundly shaped the approach of strong wealthy countries to help countries in time of struggle or famine. This is not the only principle of free trade today. Today, “multilateral and regional trade agreements are justified according to an ‘invented tradition’ of free trade (Orford, 43). Free trade is now seen as a battle of protectionism and militant economic nationalism, in which trying to provide a more peaceful world. The problem is money. Countries exploit the fact that they can make a profit and benefit their own country by increasing tariffs. If countries could become even more connected, there would not be as large of a need for increased agricultural production in the future. 

Others believe feeding the population in the future does not solely revolve around trade. These people take into account that food production and distribution has a negative effect on the environment. The MENA region, aka those countries that are already the vulnerable will be the countries hit the hardest by climate change (Kanji, 56). Countries that will be hit the hardest from climate change will also be least able to adapt. This means that these developing countries don’t need solutions to food supply that will continue to worsen the health of the planet. These countries need solutions that involve ways of mass producing food locally, despite lack of usable land for agriculture.

Through agricultural research, new innovations continue to arise that can conquer future challenges in the agricultural industry. One challenge these new innovations face, is maintaining an abundance of usable land for agriculture. In the Netherlands, there are plans for the world’s first floating dairy farm. The dairy farm will sit in a port at Rotterdam in the Netherlands and will supply milk to all local consumers. Isabel Davies, a writer for Farmers Weekly, explains that the project aims to “address the problem of how to feed a growing population when competition for land is increasing” (Davies, 2016). The project also seeks to reduce the distance that milk and other dairy products need to be transported to consumers, in which causing a decrease in greenhouse gas emissions and putting shoppers back in touch with nature and farming. This idea has potential on a global level as talk of a floating dairy farm in New York is already under way. This innovation could also be used to rear poultry, dairy goats or for growing horticultural cropping (Davies, 2016). If the project is successful, the goal will be to house up to 200 cows who would produce up to 5,000kg of milk each day. This innovation, of creating land on water, will become crucial as scarcity for usable land and the demand for animal agriculture increase.

A substantial portion of the Earths soil is inadequate for agricultural purposes. Land once suitable for agricultural use is abandoned often due to soil degradation caused by water and wind erosion, salinization, and desertification. Jan Jansa and other experts at the Institute of Plant, Animal, and Agroecosystem Sciences and the Institute of Environmental Decisions, point out that these detrimental effects are usually not reversible over the short run, and “it could take centuries for the soil quality to recover or for new soil to form” (Jansa, 2010). This development will result in shrinkage of high-quality cropland in the near future. These natural conditions only intensify the amount of cropland already lost from urbanization, construction, and other activities such as biofuel production (Jansa, 2010). 

The population by 2050, is estimated to increase the most in South America, Asia and mainly Africa. These regions of the world suffer from a harsh climate and nutrient lacking soil which makes it extremely difficult to grow mass amounts of crops. If the population in these areas increases, agriculture in these areas must increase as well. Some species of plants are able to grow in dry, nutrient lacking soil, but these plants are not suitable for human consumption. If there was a way to cultivate crops that were drought tolerant, then the amount of usable land for agriculture would increase tremendously. Jill Farrent, a professor of molecular and cell biology, believes that the secret to producing drought tolerant crops is through resurrection plants. Resurrection plants are able to 95 percent of their water and remain alive. Once these plants are given water “they’ll green-up and bloom within days or even hours” (Farrent, 2016). 

The most commonly consumed plant species are annuals, including wheat, rice, and maize. 95 percent of the crops we eat are annuals. The vegetative tissues on the leaves and roots of annuals have no avoidance, tolerance, or resistant characteristics. To illustrate, if there was a maize crop in Africa and there was a two-week drought, all the crop would be dead. Farrent considers the possibility of genetically modifying crops like annuals by inserting resurrection genes into them. This would allow crops that we consume every day, that are usually sensitive to changes in climate, to survive in areas of drought and extreme climate change. As the global climate continues to change, and as the scarcity of arable land continues to increase, the genetic make-up of resurrection plants may become an extremely influential factor in how and where we grow our crops.

Production of “green energy” in the form of biofuels is likely to divert a substantial share of resources such as land, water, and fertilizers from the food crops in the near future (Jansa, 2010). Biofuel is fuel produced from biomass which includes plant matter and manure. Bioenergy with Carbon Capture and Storage (BECCS) is a form of bioenergy that is proposed by the Charles H. Greene as an important method for achieving negative CO2 emissions later this century while simultaneously producing renewable energy on a global scale. BECCS however, has many negative environmental consequences for land, nutrient, and water use as well as biodiversity and food production. A more promising alternative to reduce CO2 emissions while simultaneously contributing to global energy and food security is industrial cultivation of marine microalgae (ICMM). ICMM requires only a fraction of the land use of BECCS and it does not require fresh water so it does not compete with agriculture (Greene, 2016). The method of ICMM would produce food to feed the increasing number of livestock in animal agriculture while also producing an energy source that would not increase the CO2 emissions in the air. 

This transition from BECCS to the more efficient alternative, ICMM is a perfect example of what is needed in all sectors of the agricultural industry. Anthropogenic climate change poses many problems in the future. As we develop new methods to improve the standard of living for the population we must take the environment into account. This argument is revolved around whether or not the food industry will be able to feed the population in the future, but no matter which side you take on this argument the environment is a key factor. Minimizing the environmental footprint of the food industry is crucial if the population is going to increase at its projected rate. The World Health Organization predicts that climate change will probably affect all four key dimensions of food supply: availability, stability, access and utilization (Tong, 759). Changes in temperature and precipitation are already affecting regional agriculture and food production systems in many ways. Climate change has the potential to interrupt progress towards a world without hunger. 

Developed countries will play a major role in helping developing countries obtain food security and population control in the future. In the future, developed countries will also experience population growth and climate change so they must support themselves before they can help others. China is the world’s most populous country and one of the fastest growing developing economies (Tong, 759). China already has to import grain in an attempt to meet its food needs. The gap between those needs and national food production is likely to increase as climate change proceeds (Tong, 759). China’s food security is affected by many anthropogenic factors, including air pollution, industrialization, population growth, and urbanization. Urbanization has had a “severe impact on agriculture and agricultural costs in China,” mainly due to loss of fertile land (Tong, 760). More than 100 million Chinese farmers and their families still experience poverty. Climate change is likely to exacerbate the problems they face, because they often lack the “financial and other resources needed to respond effectively” (Tong, 760). China, with its fragile ecological systems, may be especially vulnerable to climate change in the future. If China can rise up to tackle the challenges posed by climate change, its experience and success could provide useful guidance for other countries. 

Both sides of this argument can agree that new policies are needed to successfully feed the growing population, but both sides have different solutions. Trade is necessary due to the unequal distribution of food globally, but as the population rises and climate change becomes a more relevant factor, locally produced food will need to be the main focus. Of course food will always be imported and exported all over the world but all countries globally need to innovate and practice new methods to mass produce food for the local population. What the future brings will always be uncertain. Will Thomas Malthus’s theory may one day come true, but until then the human race will continue to adapt. 

