Raising the minimum wage in United States will make it more expensive to hire younger and low-skill workers, and while on paper this seems like an effective way to help the poor, it will just cause a bigger gap between the poor and upper class. Seventy-one percent of Americans believe the minimum wage should be increased. While I am included in that 71%, I also believe that $15/hour for a federal wage is way too high. Some cities have already raised their wages to $15, mainly San Leandro, California, Seattle, Washington, and Clarkson, Georgia (Axelrod). There has not been enough time in those cities to correctly determine if the wage increase worked, but in Seattle the only increase was about a 7% increase in the restaurant business (Dayen). I believe that in the future, when the minimum wage finally increases to $15 for Seattle in 2018, that they will have some serious consequences to deal with, such as more poverty and a higher inflation rate. If the wage was raised then the effect of that would be a higher price for goods and services. It seemed like an uncontroversial claim; even supporters of the Fight for $15 said they would be willing to pay a bit more to give workers a living wage. 62 percent of Seattle employers responded in an initial survey before the wage hike took effect that they would likely raise prices (Dayen). I don’t believe the wage should stay at $7.25/ hour, because no one can live off of that little amount, but I don’t believe that it should be raised so much that the majority of 28 million small businesses would have to lay off workers (Cahn). To state my central claim again, I support a wage increase that indexes to inflation, such as a gradual increase. I believe that $15 per hour is too much to pay an low-skilled worker, and the whiplash of the raise could be horrible for almost the whole labor force. 

Congress released a print source that can be found online now that is titled, The Effects of a Minimum-Wage Increase on Employment and Family Income. In this source, they show the upside and downside of having either a $10.10 minimum wage that would be indexed for inflation, meaning it would raise as inflation occurred, or a $9 minimum wage that would stay flat. This source states, “the $10.10 option would reduce total employment by about 500,000 workers … there is about a two-thirds chance that the effect would be in the range between a very slight reduction in employment and a reduction in employment of 1.0 million workers” (Congress 4). Even Congress recognizes that there it is almost certain jobs will be lost. Although $10.10/hour is not that high, our economy cannot handle almost a $3 increase in minimum wage right now. What we can handle is a wage around $9. The source also states, “The $9.00 option would reduce employment by about 100,000 workers … the effect would be in the range between a very slight increase in employment and a reduction in employment of 200,000 workers” (Congress 6). While this is certainly not the only deciding factor in between these two options, it helps that there will be minimal loss of jobs, with a chance of there even being an increase in the labor force. Lastly, since the wage has stayed flat since 2009, I think there should be some kind of increase. As inflation has made goods and services more expensive, low-income workers are spending less and less money on items because they are not making as much as they want. Nine dollars per hour is a feasible solution to this problem.

The research suggests that if the minimum wage increased to even $10.50, there would be over 1 million jobs lost from companies not being able to afford the wage hike and only 11-12% of people who are below the poverty line would even benefit from the increase (Salam). There are millions of people who are structurally unemployed, struggling teenagers, less-skilled immigrants, people who have been unemployed for years, ex-offenders who are trying to get on their feet who need on-the-job experience if they’re ever going to be in positions to command higher wages down the road (Salam). These people cannot afford to be unemployed as they could also turn to selling drugs, or doing something else illegal in order to make a living for themselves. I had a chance to talk to a few of my friends from back home about their opinions on raising the wage.  If they could make a career out of a minimum wage job, they would do that instead of going to college and accumulating debt. If they could minimize their effort and still make enough for a living, they would. Also, the assumption that “service would be better” isn’t true.With less employees comes less time for training, which in turn makes employees worse in terms of their skill. If McDonald’s is paying its workers $15/hr to make a $2-4 burger, it doesn’t end up making sense. If they cooked burgers from real beef and took their time in making it taste and look good, then I would understand why their workers would deserve more money. Raising the wage is an enticing proposition because it’s intended to help the working poor. Logic and Facts show that half of minimum wage jobs are worked by teenagers, and in the end it forces companies to lay off workers, making it harder for Americans to make ends meet.

The Fair Minimum Wage Act of 2013 would have the wage from $7.25 to $10.10 an hour for restaurant employees, and raised wages for non-tipped employees. (Sickler). Raising the wages would increase labor costs a lot, but a lot of restaurants have low profit margins, which would do more hurt than help the industry (Sickler). Melvin “Mel” Sickler is an owner of several restaurant franchises and member of the National Restaurant Association (NRA). This was his testimony in front of to the Senate Committee of Health, Education, Labor, and Pensions (HELP), titled "Keeping up With a Changing Economy: Indexing the Minimum Wage." 

They wouldn’t be able to afford the higher wages, and because the economy is weak as it is, a lot of restaurants wouldn’t be able to stay afloat. Also, higher wages mean higher prices. The minimum wage in Massachusetts is $10, while the wage in Mississippi is $7.97. The cost of living in Massachusetts is high because the minimum wage is high, and vice versa for Mississippi (Salam). Consumers, like myself, are notoriously sensitive to prices when they raise. I would be less inclined to spend money on, let's say, a burger that's 9$ instead of 7$ because the restaurant needs to pay their wages. Since that would be the most likely trend in consumer thinking, the restaurant would lose a lot of profit, and combined with the need to pay their workers 15$/hour, it wouldn't work. 

Workers in Ferguson, Missouri, are complaining that low wage is one of the main contributions to black poverty, and it isn’t helping that venture capitalists are cornering black families into these small apartment complexes. (American). They believe that because of the wage, they live in poverty, and are demanding higher wages. V.P. Franklin, the author of the article “UNITED FRONT: SERVICE WORKERS AND SUPPORTERS OF REPARATORY JUSTICE”, says,  lot of businesses in Ferguson have a small profit margin to begin with, so if they decide to raise the wage a large portion of of these businesses wouldn’t even be able to afford it (Franklin, 347). In the Journal of African American History, Franklin says, “Poor, working-class, and middle-class families have been targeted by vulture capitalists in the mortgage finance industry, charter school movement, standardized testing companies, private prison industry, and fast food chains” (Franklin, 349). As this might be the case, raising wages won’t do these families any good. It would bring only  about 10-12% of people out of poverty, which pushing the ones who already live below the poverty line even lower. The source talks about how poor - low middle class black families are being targeted for their money by apartment owning corporations. These capitalists find profit in building section 8 housing that poor families are basically forced into. The author of this article claims it is racism, but I do not agree with her. Instead of continuing to work and generate income, no matter how small it is, thousands of people who live in impoverished areas are just quitting their job and protesting (0:30 - 0:45).  The way to help these people from being targeted is not to raise wage to $15.  Therefore, even though poor families are being targeted by venture capitalists to live in these apartment complexes, raising the wage to $15 would only end up benefitting a small percentage of impoverished people. 

Another concern is small business vs franchises and big businesses. McDonald’s is exploring automated systems right now for ordering food, and if that ends up working, they employ over 400,000 workers in United States that could potentially lose their jobs (Forbes).  Also, small businesses employ over half of the minimum wage working class. The Congressional Budget Office even said that raising the wage to $10.10 would almost certainly cost the economy 500,000 jobs. (Office 4) If 500,000 jobs are lost, there would be an economic decrease, because less money would be spent on goods and services, impacting not only the people who lost their jobs, but the businesses in those particular areas. Doing the math, if 500,000 jobs are lost at $10.10, then even with a 5% increase in wage would amount to almost a 3% loss in minimum wage jobs. Most small businesses that pay minimum wage are more typically in competitive industries with low profit margins where even a $3 increase could be damaging to the economy. Businesses could probably absorb a 12$ minimum wage and change their business strategy to incorporate the wage, but at $15, businesses wouldn't be able to stay afloat (Sickler). Also, when small businesses collapse due to their inability to afford labor, big businesses will thrive. For example, the restaurant that I worked at over the summer had a really small profit margin, so they would have to let a lot of servers and busboys go to afford the wage increase. On the other hand, my friends job at Subway would be more secure because corporate would pay for his wage. Also, even though my friends job would be more secure, it wouldn't be a lot more secure, because many people would start applying to Subway to get a job, and he would have to compete for a job. Therefore, raising the wage to $15 would not only impact small businesses but a lot of employees who work for big businesses too. 

Furthermore, most minimum wage workers are teenagers, not adults. Around 50% of all minimum wage job workers are 16-24, with half of them being teenagers. According to Youth unemployment right now is 3 times higher than it should be, and if wages are raised, the rate could just go up from there. Minimum wage jobs were meant for low-skilled workers who need a little extra money while they pursue education. Minimum wage jobs are thought of as for younger people under 25 who need some extra money while they work on getting a high paying job. Minimum wage jobs aren’t meant to be a career, or primary income for a family. One of my friends got his pilot’s license and regional pilot certification, and he makes about $10.80 an hour. His pay for all of last year was just about $23,000. If wage was even raised to 10$ an hour, a McDonald’s worker would be making almost as much as a regional pilot, and McDonald’s doesn't require extensive training or hours of practice.  

My other job at Old Navy requires me to put clothes back on shelves and racks and check people out at the counter. It’s not worth paying $15/hour for me to basically just smile at customers all day and tell them where clothes are. If i was making that much money, plus time and a half on sundays, I would just work 2 minimum wage jobs, work 10-12 hours a day, and go home with over 1200$ a week before taxes. That would amount to just over $60,000 in a year. With that much money and a chance at being internally promoted in the future, I wouldn’t even bother going to college. With the 2 jobs I work, I would be making an entry level salary without much skill. Since the wage is still at $10, I can go home and work 20 hours in a week and have a little extra money to spend at school, instead of it becoming a lifestyle. 

Will raising the minimum wage actually help the poor? UC Berkeley did a study on raising the minimum wage, and Michael Reich, one of the study’s authors and an economist at the University of California, Berkeley, said, “Our results show that a minimum-wage increase to $10.10 would reduce the need for 3.5 million people to support themselves on food stamps.” It While this seems like it would be beneficial, in reality, half of employers would stop hiring and ⅓ of businesses would start immediate layoffs (Cahn). Cahn uses a little bit of sarcasm in this article, talking about “economics 101” and how anyone who has studied economics would know that there would be more negative than positive effects of a wage hike.

Even a 10$ minimum wage would cause 34% of companies to start laying off their workers. There is no “one-size-fits-all” argument for minimum wage. As I stated earlier, each state has different standards of living. If the government tries to make it so that everyone makes the same amount of money, then the standard in each state would change drastically. The wage is low enough right now so that each state can set their own bar depending on how much items such as gas and produce cost, but if the wage raised to $15, there wouldn't be any room to change. The term is “market-determined wages,” and that is how it should be. Another thing about the wage is why let the Government set it. The people in congress are government officials and politicians who are trying to adjust the wage of unskilled workers. Although 71% of Americans believe that wage should be increased, including 87% of Democrats, 68% of independents, and 50% of republicans, (Dayen) I think the government should decide on what they want their wage to be. If people are given the vote, I do not think they would make the right decision.

No one can actually tell what will happen if the wage raises to $15. There are arguments on both sides that are backed up by facts, such as a study done by the American Journal Of Public Health, which states, “Across all models, a dollar increase in the minimum wage above the federal level was associated with a 1% to 2% decrease in low birth weight births and a 4% decrease in postneonatal mortality” (Komro, 1514). The most important part of this article is the statistical analysis, which shows that states that increased their wage also saw a decrease in their death rate, which was an average of about 2%. They are saying that because more women would be able to afford medication and hospital bills, less babies will die when it comes to giving birth. 

Most economists are 50/50 when it comes to debating if raising the wage will be good. David dayen says, “in Seattle, wages were raised, and while 62% of Seattle employers said in a survey that prices would increase, the city actually hasn’t seen an increase in prices yet” (Dayen). The minimum wage in Seattle right now is somewhere between $12-13, which shows that a small increase would beneficial for the economy. Dayen then goes on to say that a large increase to $15 an hour could still cause a raise in prices, but right now prices of select items, such as food, has not gone up.

In conclusion, the minimum wage should not be increased to $15/hour right away. Raising the wage that high would end up hurting millions, from high school kids to ex-offenders trying to get on their feet after getting released. He suggests that 63% of Americans support raising the wage to $15, while raising the wage to $12.50 is backed by 75% of Americans, including 53% of Republicans. There has been arguments for both sides of keeping the wage flat or the “Fight for 15,” but I have rarely seen anyone with an opinion that meets in the middle. That is where I would like to come and present my argument that again, there should be a slight increase in wage, but the “Fight for 15” has to end.
