Imagine waking up. You get out of bed and begin your usual morning routine. Brush your teeth, shower, shave, make some coffee, whatever it may be. You turn on the TV, flip the channel to your favorite news station, and you see the beginning of the end of the world unfolding on your TV screen. What happened? Well, Donald Trump dropped a nuclear bomb on North Korea, of course. This may be the end of the conflict with North Korea, but probably not. There is a chance that North Korea fires back. There is a bigger chance that China fights back. No matter what though, nothing good will come out of what Trump has done. This is our future if nothing changes soon. Trump now has a rare opportunity, due to his controversy and all of the attention he draws, to diffuse the conflict going on with North Korea right now, due to the fact that many nations want to meet with him to discuss their own relationship with the U.S. However, he must make some changes if there is to be a true resolution with North Korea that would ensure peace for the foreseeable future. And if he cannot make these changes, then there is the possibility of a war breaking out and no chance of peace.

Now, in all honesty, a war is unlikely to happen. Something drastic would need to happen that would change the whole situation. There have been many times over the past couple of decades when North Korea has threatened war or the launch of nuclear weapons, and as you can probably guess, nothing has ever happened. North Korea is actually the country that would hate to see a war the most. According to BBC, “The North Korean government's main goal is survival - and direct conflict with the US would seriously jeopardize it… any North Korean attack against the US or its allies in the current context could quickly spiral into a wider war - and we have to assume the Kim Jong-un government is not suicidal” (North Korea-US Tensions). North Korea’s main reason for possessing nuclear weapons is survival. Anytime the regime feels threatened by another country, North Korea can threaten that country with nuclear war to ensure that country will not mess with them anymore. This strategy has worked up until now. That strategy no longer works due to one reason and that reason’s name is Donald Trump. 

Trump has made the North Korea situation more dangerous than ever before because of his personality. His continuous insults that he hurls upon Kim Jong-Un and the North Korean regime such as the now infamous, “Rocket man” and “fire and fury” comments have angered Kim Jong-Un. This has essentially created a shouting match between two leaders who possess nuclear launch codes that could begin World War III. They have gotten into such a war of words, North Korea is even cutting off communication: “Pyongyang will never hold talks over its nuclear arsenal and won’t enter dialogue with the U.S. as long as Washington maintains sanctions on the regime” (Kong). If Trump cannot stop making these threats and insults to the North then it will be impossible for there to be a peaceful resolution to this conflict.

Now, even if Trump stops insulting North Korea and is somehow able to get the two governments to begin talking again, you may be thinking there is no way Trump could ever create a deal between these two opposite nations to create peace. But, luckily for Trump not too long ago, Obama made a deal with Iran to stop their nuclear program. And it worked too. Hopefully. On October 15th, Trump decertified the Iran Deal. Basically that means that he says Iran is not following the deal. They are. And multiple officials have said the deal appears to be working in creating more peace in the region (Landler and Sanger). The Iran Deal was not by any means a perfect deal and got the United States everything it wanted. The deal was a compromise. If Trump can offer North Korea the right promises and assurances, he may be able to persuade them to stop their nuclear program and even possibly give the nukes up. Some of the ideas that Trump could offer in the deal that would make North Korea more likely to accept would be:

Renewing the security guarantee the US offered in 2005 pledging not to attack North Korea with conventional or nuclear weapons. 

Suspending planned military exercises with South Korea as a confidence building measure. 

Beginning discussions aimed at ending the state of war that still exists with North Korea and moving toward diplomatic normalization. 

Providing support for economic development and a reliable supply of electricity (Cortright).

I have left out one major detail about the whole situation. And that is China. China is the golden ticket that can take us to Kim Jong-Un’s chocolate factory of peace. China honestly plays a bigger role in the situation even though, for the most part, China has sat back and watched with a bowl of popcorn. Now, China is North Korea’s closest ally. Most of North Korea’s trade is with China and the country would pretty much fall apart within months if China were to stop trade with the North. However, this does not mean they are ‘friends’ by any means. “Most Chinese share the American and South Koreans view that North Korea has a bad regime, opposing the North Korean nuclear and missile programs; but most Chinese do not see the North as an immediate and serious threat, including these nuclear and missile programs” (Shulong). China also enjoys the way that Northeast Asia is structured now and does not want to see a war change the geopolitical landscape of the region. Especially since North Korea would almost certainly lose a war which would cause the South and American forces to share a border with China. So essentially, China does not like North Korea, but likes the structure of the region currently. Therefore in past conflicts with North Korea over recent years, China has not cared enough to get involved. This time is different - “China is now more deeply concerned than in the past about the damaging consequences of the North’s nuclear program. China thinks it’s possible that it could cause South Korea or Japan to go nuclear, which would be detrimental to China’s core interests” (Perry). Because of this, Trump has an opportunity to get China involved. And if he can get China involved, that would change everything. China can bring new incentives to a deal that the United States cannot, such as basically ensuring the country can’t import or export any goods. One issue with this is China’s long term goal for the Korean Peninsula of unification between the North and South. However, due to being closer with the North than the South, China is in an awkward position. If North Korea feels that China is siding with the South and the United States, then the North will feel betrayed and probably break all agreements with China, South Korea, and the United States. If this happens, then the North Korean regime may feel very threatened and they will have nothing to lose due to the economic strain that has been put on them. Kim Jong-Un would know that in order to gain resources back he may have to show some power to gain an advantage in discussions. This is when North Korea would become most dangerous. If Kim Jong-Un feels he has nothing to lose but everything to gain then there is a good chance he would be willing to fire nuclear missiles at the surrounding countries and the United States. And then we have WWIII on our hands.

At the time of submission of this paper, Trump is currently on a trip through Asia where his main goal is to promote other countries to join in on the crisis at hand in the Korean Peninsula. “‘All nations must implement UN Security Council regulations and cease trade and business entirely with North Korea,’ Trump said. ‘It is unacceptable that nations would help to arm and finance this increasingly dangerous regime’” (Jacobs). This quote is essentially targeted at China, but from China’s perspective, this is not how to solve the issue. “‘There are big differences in the way of thinking between the United States and China on North Korea,’ said Yang Xiyu, a former Chinese Foreign Ministry negotiator on North Korea. ‘Trump thinks of North Korea too simplistically — that if China cuts off the oil, the nuclear issue will be solved’” (Perlez and Jane). China knows that it cannot do everything to North Korea that the United States is doing because their relationship with the North is different. China and the North are not enemies like the U.S. and North Korea. If China were to do the same things as the U.S., then the North Korean regime would begin to fall quickly and then anything could happen. However, China should join in on a peace negotiation with the U.S. and North Korea because China would likely serve as an excellent moderator between the two. And, it would be a large influence for the North to make a deal since China is essentially a parent to the poor nation.

Now, speaking of the North Korean regime it is probably about time I talk about Kim Jong-Un, or “rocket man”, according to the President of the United States. He is not the madman that the media makes him out to be. He actually is quite calculated, and has observed what leaders have done before him, what has succeeded, and what has failed. Kim Jong-Un has seen dictators such as Saddam Hussein in Iraq and Muammar Gaddafi in Libya give up on their nuclear programs only to soon have horrific deaths soon after (LastWeekTonight). Therefore even though the North Korea situation is in unprecedented territory currently, Kim Jong-Un does not want to give up the nuclear program because he assumes that would lead to the regime’s downfall over time. Kim Jong-Un has also been doing something that is unlike his father or grandfather. He has North Koreans sometimes leave and study business in major cities in surrounding countries so that they can bring knowledge of the current business world back to the North and apply it. If Kim and the North were to establish new ways of business, it could open up a new era for the Korean Peninsula of economic growth - perhaps even leading to peace. However, the regime falling is one of the worst possible things to happen in the situation. If you look at the the Middle East, then you would see that the North Korean regime falling would lead to a vacuum of power in the region. And the last time there was a large power vacuum in the Middle East, the result was ISIS. Now, think of a North Korean version of ISIS. Now think about the fact that this North Korean ISIS would have access to 15 nuclear weapons and about 8,000 heavy artillery guns. Not good.

The North Korea situation is very delicate and extremely tense right now. Many people doubt that Trump is the right leader to solve this issue once and for all in a peaceful manner. He can be the right leader mostly because of what is going on around him has led to a state where North Korea would be willing to make a deal (should the right things happen) more than ever before. However, he is the wrong leader for the job if all he is going to do is continue to hurl insults at Kim Jong-Un. Trump needs to get China involved as well as the other countries in the region such as Russia and Japan. Think about if all of your neighbors filed a noise complaint against you. Now one or two of your neighbors filing that complaint might not make you change anything, but the entire neighborhood. Well in that case, even if you weren’t being loud to begin with you definitely will be quiet now. Therefore, if Trump can get these other countries involved and begin to promote peace and negotiations, rather than threatening North Korea with “fire and fury”, then North Korea might actually agree to talk to the United States. The country would probably even agree to a deal if China could persuade Kim Jong-Un to accept. Unfortunately for everyone, Trump cannot seem to make up his mind whether he wants to diffuse the situation and promote peace between nations or if he wants to be the person who starts World War III. Probably the perfect example of this is in my works cited. I kid you not, two of my sources are articles that were written about 7 hours apart from each other, one of them has the headline, “Trump Softens Tone on North Korea, Urges Deal on Nuclear Weapons”, the other article is headlined, “Trump warns North Korea: 'Do not try us”! No, these articles are not opposite versions of the same story. Both of these articles have direct quotes from Trump and the context of which he said them. This just goes to show he cannot make up his mind. Even though potentially the fate of the world depends on whether or not a peace talk occurs, he cannot decide whether he wants there to be peace and let Kim Jong-Un and North Korea get a small victory or if he wants to go to war and prove to Kim Jong-Un that he is the better man. If Trump cannot put his own personal ego second to world peace then it is going to become very hard to keep peace. So, on the off chance that President Trump ever reads this, I plead that you don’t try to blow up North Korea. There are better ways to solve this crisis. And the next time you decide to get into a war of words with somebody, please make sure they don’t have nuclear weapons. That would make things much more simple.
